After a quiet start to the Atlantic Hurricane Season, things are quickly heating up as we crest the peak of the season. Over the past week, we’ve fielded a lot of requests for our thoughts and what we expect for Hurricane Lee in New England and the Canadian Maritimes. So back by popular demand, here you go.
We’ve been closely monitoring the weather models and forecasts as Hurricane Lee starts to train its crosshairs on New England and the Canadian Maritimes. While there still remains some uncertainty in the forecast, models are starting to converge on a solution. If you have plans to travel anywhere near the coast of New England or the Canadian Maritimes this weekend, we strongly recommend you reconsider those plans.
Key Takeaways
Before we dive into details, there are a few things we can say with a high degree of confidence right now.
- Cape Cod, far eastern Maine, and southern Nova Scotia will see the heaviest impacts from Hurricane Lee. The hurricane will not be as strong as the October 2021 nor’easter that knocked out power for a week.
- Lee and its wind field will expand as it comes north. The slower it moves, the larger the wind field will be.
- Lee will slowly weaken once its eye gets inside the Gulf Stream. The slower it moves, the more it will weaken by the time it reaches New England.
- Expect heavy surf and strong rip currents up and down the entire east coast of the US and Canada
- A strong Bermuda High over the north-central Atlantic will block Lee from turning to the northeast
- We do not expect any major wind impacts from Lee south of New York City
The Big Picture: Looking at Hurricane Lee’s Steering Currents
There are two primary features that will impact where Hurricane Lee goes. The primary steering current is a Bermuda High sitting over the north-central Atlantic. As Lee moves north, Tropical Storm Margot will push that Bermuda high to the north/northwest, which will at the very least block Lee from turning to the northeast until it gets into Canada. It will likely also push Lee back to the west, towards Cape Cod.
Second, there is an upper-level low over southern Ontario and Québec. While the jet stream from those lows typically grabs hold of a hurricane and slingshots it over the top of the Bermuda high, we expect this low will clear out of the area by the time Lee approaches southern New England.
Current Watches and Warnings for Hurricane Lee
There are currently no watches or warnings in effect for Hurricane Lee anywhere in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, or the Caribbean.
The Models
It’s been at least two years since we’ve done one of these weather briefings, so let’s take a quick refresher on the four global models we use to forecast hurricanes. As the most accurate models, the GFS and ECMWF get the heaviest weight in our forecasts.
| Model Name | Nickname | Owner | Resolution | Runs Every | Forecasts To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Forecast System | GFS or American | NOAA (USA) | 22 km | 6 Hours | 384 Hours |
| European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting | ECMWF or Euro | European Union | 9 km | 12 Hours | 240 Hours |
| Global Deterministic Prediction System | GDPS or Canadian | Environment Canada | 15 km | 6 Hours | 240 Hours |
| United Kingdom Meteorological Agency | UKMET | United Kingdom | 10 km | 12 Hours | 144 Hours |
While the Euro has traditionally been the best model for hurricanes over the past decade, this time we’re basing our forecast off the GFS model. We’re doing this because the GFS been very consistent in its predictions for over a week. It has also been correct with its predictions of Hurricane Lee so far. On the other hand, the Euro model has been all over the place over the past 3 to 4 days.
New England
Consistent with the Bermuda High drifting to the north/northwest as Hurricane Lee comes north, the latest runs of both the GFS and the Euro models push Lee back to the west as it approaches New England. Indeed, both models bring the eye extremely close to the outer parts of Cape Cod. That being said, none of the four models show the storm actually making landfall on Cape Cod, so for now we are not expecting landfall in Massachusetts. As a result, wind directions throughout New England will start northeast and shift northwest.
Further complicating the matter, Lee’s wind profiles are setting up so that a small wobble in one direction or the other can make a big difference in the sustained wind speeds you’ll see on the Cape. It remains likely sustained winds will reach hurricane strength somewhere on Cape Cod and the Islands. Both the GFS and Euro show the possibility of hurricane-force winds anywhere on the Cape. Our forecasts reflect that, but keep in mind we consider that a worst-case scenario right now.
Canadian Maritimes
The Canadian Maritimes will bear the brunt of Hurricane Lee, particularly the coast of Nova Scotia. Over the past 4 to 5 days, the models have been very consistent with the storm making landfall somewhere between Yarmouth and Halifax, Nova Scotia. However, both the GFS and Euro have been pushing the track west over the past 36 hours or so. As a result, it’s very possible the storm could make landfall in eastern Maine. Regardless of the exact track, the entire Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia will see onshore winds, so we do expect some coastal flooding.
No matter where you are in the Canadian Maritimes, you will feel impacts from Lee. While Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island will see the heaviest impacts, Lee will begin to weaken once it encounters the cold waters in the Gulf of Maine. Expect blustery conditions across eastern Québec, particularly throughout Bas Saint Laurent, La Gaspésie, and Côte Nord. Likewise, Newfoundland, Labrador, and St. Pierre et Miquelon will see similar blustery conditions.
Our Verdict on Hurricane Lee’s Impacts in New England and the Canadian Maritimes
The GFS and Euro models are now pretty much in lockstep. We expect Lee to be a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches New England, with maximum winds of 70 to 80 knots. It will weaken once it gets north of Cape Cod. Based on current sea surface temperatures and our past experience with hurricanes in New England and the Canadian Maritimes, we believe the GFS is too aggressive weakening Lee north of Cape Cod. As a result, we will weight our wind speed forecast for most of those locations more to the Euro.
Lee’s track will slightly favor the western half of the National Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty as it approaches New England. It may even take a wobble to the west as the Bermuda High moves north with it. Despite being pushed west, the eye of Hurricane Lee will still pass offshore of Cape Cod. Then, the storm makes landfall between Bar Harbor, Maine and Halifax, Nova Scotia. However, remember that Lee is a massive storm, so you don’t want to dwell on its exact track at this point. Regardless of where you are in New England or the Canadian Maritimes, you will feel some impact from Hurricane Lee.
What to Expect: Hurricane Lee Wind Speeds Across New England and the Canadian Maritimes
The table below contains the maximum possible sustained wind speeds you may see during the storm. In other words, it’s a worst-case scenario. We base these predictions off of model data, as well as our experience and local knowledge with New England hurricanes.
| Point Location | GFS Max Possible Sustained Winds | Euro Max Possible Sustained Winds | Our Forecast Max Sustained Winds |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York, NY | 30 to 40 kt | 25 to 35 kt | 30 to 40 kt |
| Montauk, NY | 35 to 50 kt | 45 to 55 kt | 40 to 50 kt |
| Newport, RI | 45 to 55 kt | 45 to 55 kt | 45 to 55 kt |
| Woods Hole, MA | 55 to 65 kt | 60 to 70 kt | 55 to 65 kt |
| Chatham, MA | 65 to 75 kt | 65 to 75 kt | 65 to 75 kt |
| Boston, MA | 45 to 55 kt | 50 to 60 kt | 45 to 55 kt |
| Portland, ME | 45 to 55 kt | 45 to 55 kt | 45 to 55 kt |
| Bar Harbor, ME | 60 to 70 kt | 50 to 60 kt | 55 to 65 kt |
| St. John, NB | 45 to 55 kt | 40 to 50 kt | 45 to 55 kt |
| Yarmouth, NS | 55 to 65 kt | 50 to 60 kt | 50 to 60 kt |
| Halifax, NS | 30 to 40 kt | 50 to 60 kt | 45 to 55 kt |
| Charlottetown, PE | 25 to 35 kt | 50 to 60 kt | 40 to 50 kt |
| Gaspé, QC | 25 to 35 kt | 40 to 50 kt | 35 to 45 kt |
| Port aux Basques, NL | 35 to 45 kt | 50 to 60 kt | 45 to 55 kt |
| St. Pierre et Miquelon, FR | 25 to 30 kt | 45 to 55 kt | 35 to 45 kt |
Travel Impacts of Hurricane Lee
We recommend you do not attempt to travel to New England or the Canadian Maritimes this weekend. Expect flight cancellations at major airports including Boston, Providence, Hartford, Portland, and Halifax. Additionally, conditions will likely exceed the threshold required to close the bridges onto Cape Cod. Lee will bring down trees and power lines as well. Rest assured, you won’t see anything close to what you did in the October, 2021 nor’easter.
Over the upcoming week, we’ll post updates right here as our forecasts and analyses change. If you don’t see anything, it means we have not made any changes to our forecast. Please leave any questions you have in the comments section below and we’ll respond as soon as possible.
Additional Resources
- NOAA National Hurricane Center
- Canadian Hurricane Centre (En Français: Centre Canadien de Prévision des Ouragans)
- Pivotal Weather: The Models
