With less than 48 hours to go until maximum impact from Hurricane Lee here on Cape Cod, the models have all pretty much locked in on its track. Lee will start to bend northeast, but then the Bermuda High will push it back to the west as it approaches southern New England. And it turns out that the timing of those wobbles will ultimately determine the magnitude of Lee’s impact for both Cape Cod and Nova Scotia.
“Hurricane conditions and coastal flooding are possible in portions of eastern Maine, southern New Brunswick, and western Nova Scotia on Saturday, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for that area. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket where a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere across New England and Atlantic Canada within the Tropical Storm Watch areas.”
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center – 11:00 AM EDT Advisory Thursday September 14, 2023
As Lee accelerates north, it has been traveling slightly faster than recent model runs have predicted. As a result, both the wobble to the east and the wobble to the west will occur further north. That will pull the passage of the eye away from Cape Cod. It will then either clip or bend around southwestern Nova Scotia. Lee will still make landfall near the US-Canada border in either Maine or New Brunswick.
Tropical Storm Conditions Expected on Cape Cod
Despite the minor shift in timing of the wobble, all of Cape Cod will see tropical storm conditions. Thanks to near record warm sea surface temperatures, Lee’s wind field is expanding faster than it is weakening. As of Thursday afternoon, tropical storm force winds extend outwards about 300 miles (480 km) from the eye. We expect the eye will pass between 150 and 200 miles (240 to 320 km) from the Outer Cape. Therefore, we are adjusting wind speeds slightly downward for Cape Cod, which you can see in the table below.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for all of Cape Cod and the Islands. All hurricane preparations on Cape Cod should be completed by late Friday morning. Conditions will start to deteriorate midday Friday, and things will really ramp up after sundown. While we do not recommend any travel to or from Cape Cod, beware conditions may exceed the threshold to close the Bourne and Sagamore Bridges overnight on Friday. Please plan accordingly.
Hurricane Conditions Possible from Maine to Nova Scotia
Once Hurricane Lee passes Cape Cod, there are a lot of moving pieces still in play that will influence the exact impacts it has on Maine and the Canadian Maritimes. At the very least, expect tropical storm conditions along the coast between Bar Harbor, Maine and Halifax, Nova Scotia. That includes the Bay of Fundy.
As the title of this update says, it all comes down to timing. Lee will weaken at a much faster pace once it gets over the colder waters of the Gulf of Maine. For reference, the water temperature in Bar Harbor, ME is 55°F/13°C. But with its faster forward speed, it may not weaken to a tropical storm by the time it makes landfall. As a result, all we can say at this point is that hurricane conditions are possible. Thankfully, any hurricane conditions won’t last very long, as Lee will rapidly weaken after landfall.
Right now, it’s a flip of a coin whether or not Hurricane Lee makes landfall in southwestern Nova Scotia first. However, we can’t stress enough that you shouldn’t focus on the exact track of the hurricane. A 20 or 25 mile (30 to 40 km) deviation in the track won’t make much of a difference in terms of impacts. Regardless of where the two wobbles occur, Lee is still on track to make landfall near the US-Canada border on Saturday night.
Revised Wind Forecasts for New England and the Canadian Maritimes
In the table below, the peak conditions indicate a window in which we expect the peak conditions to occur. They will not last the entire duration of that window.
| City/Town | Peak Conditions (Local Time) | High Tide (Local Time) | Wind Direction at Peak | Max Sustained (kt) | Max Gusts (kt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York, NY | Saturday 6 AM to Noon | 9:45 AM 9:45 PM | N -> NW | 15 to 25 | 25 to 35 |
| Montauk, NY | Saturday 2 AM to 2 PM | 10:00 AM 10:16 PM | N -> NW | 20 to 30 | 35 to 45 |
| Newport, RI | Saturday 2 AM to 2 PM | 9:16 AM 9:27 PM | N -> NW | 25 to 35 | 45 to 55 |
| Woods Hole, MA | Friday 11 PM to Saturday 2 PM | 9:42 AM 10:01 PM | NNE -> NW | 35 to 45 | 55 to 65 |
| Chatham, MA | Friday 11 PM to Saturday 2 PM | 1:23 AM 1:42 PM | NNE -> NW | 40 to 50 | 60 to 70 |
| Boston, MA | Saturday 5 AM to 5 PM | 12:36 AM 12:56 PM | N -> NW | 30 to 40 | 45 to 55 |
| Portland, ME | Saturday 5 AM to 5 PM | 12:28 AM 12:47 PM | N -> NW | 30 to 40 | 50 to 60 |
| Bar Harbor, ME | Saturday 5 AM to 8 PM | 12:03 AM 12:21 PM | N -> NW | 40 to 50 | 60 to 70 |
| St. John, NB | Saturday 9 AM to Sunday 3 AM | 1:23 PM 1:41 AM | NE -> SW | 40 to 50 | 60 to 70 |
| Yarmouth, NS | Saturday 3 AM to Midnight | 12:16 PM 12:33 AM | E -> W | 50 to 60 | 65 to 75 |
| Halifax, NS | Saturday 9 AM to Midnight | 9:43 AM 9:57 PM | SE -> SW | 35 to 45 | 55 to 65 |
| Charlottetown, PE | Saturday 12 Noon to Sunday 9 AM | 12:51 PM 1:10 AM | E -> SE | 25 to 35 | 45 to 55 |
| Gaspé, QC | Saturday 2 PM to Sunday 8 PM | 3:56 PM 4:12 AM | E -> W | 25 to 35 | 35 to 45 |
| Port aux Basques, NL | Sunday 4 AM to Monday 4 AM | 4:56 AM 5:19 PM | S -> W | 25 to 35 | 45 to 55 |
| St. Pierre et Miquelon, FR | Sunday 4 AM to Monday 4 AM | 4:25 AM 4:45 PM | S -> W | 20 to 30 | 35 to 45 |
We are not Expecting Major Flooding from Hurricane Lee
The coastline of New England and the Canadian Maritimes makes it difficult to get huge storm surges. With few places for surge to stack up, most of the excess water just dumps into a nearby gulf or simply back out into the Atlantic. The areas at highest risk for storm surge from Lee are Cape Cod Bay, the South Shore of Massachusetts (Sagamore to Cohasset), and the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia.
Furthermore, the majority of the rainfall from Lee will fall harmlessly over the open ocean. It’s possible that you may see some minor flooding in places where soils are already saturated. Other than that, we are not expecting any significant flooding as Lee passes through.
Looking Ahead: Beware Hurricane Lee May Have a Doppelgänger
If you have a look east of the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean, there is another tropical storm (which will become Nigel) developing in nearly the exact same spot Lee was about a week ago. With the strong Bermuda High expected to re-establish itself over the Atlantic next week, models are hinting that Nigel may follow a nearly identical track to Lee. Keep in mind this is a possibility at this point, not an expectation. Models have been all over the place with what they think Nigel will do, which is expected. Once Nigel forms in the next 48 hours, the models will be able to give more accurate projections. Because as low as they are right now, the odds of a second hurricane hitting Cape Cod and the Canadian Maritimes about 10 days from now are not zero.
Additional Resources
- For more information, please read our Wednesday discussion on Hurricane Lee.
- NOAA National Hurricane Center
- Canadian Hurricane Centre (En Français: Centre Canadien de Prévision des Ouragans)
- Pivotal Weather: The Models
