If there was one lesson I really took away from learning weather forecasting during my time as a meteorology student at the University of Oklahoma, it would be this. Never get caught up chasing models around. And boy, oh boy, it was so incredibly tempting to yesterday.
On Tuesday, the GFS Went Rogue
In our Monday briefing two days ago, both the GFS and Euro models had finally converged and were pretty much in lockstep. They predicted Hurricane Lee would slalom east and then west as it came north, nearly kissing Cape Cod before making landfall near the US-Canada border.
Much to everyone’s surprise, by Tuesday morning, the two models had once again diverged. The GFS had shifted the track significantly east, a scenario that is next to impossible given the current conditions. And with the National Hurricane Center seemingly hell-bent on putting all their eggs in the GFS basket, their track shifted noticeably east, too. At one point on Tuesday, the Euro model’s track actually took the eye of Lee outside of the NHC cone near Cape Cod. Not surprisingly, we did not agree with the Hurricane Center’s forecast at all.
We Stuck with Our Monday Forecast Keeping the Storm Track West
With the Euro staying consistent from its Monday predictions, it would be reckless forecasting to just guess at which model would be correct. Instead, you just have to be patient and wait to see how the models reconverge. That’s exaclty why we did not publish any updates yesterday. Would the Euro shift east, or would the GFS come back west?
Well, as they say, patience is a virtue. And ours seems to have paid off. Overnight, the GFS came to its senses, shifting back to the west and realigning with the Euro.
The Big Picture: A Weak Cold Front and a Wobble will Determine the Fates of Cape Cod and Nova Scotia
The big picture remains largely unchanged since Monday. A cold front to the west and the Bermuda High to the east are duking it out to steer Hurricane Lee towards New England and the Canadian Maritimes.
The cold front will initially push Lee east, towards Bermuda. But the much stronger high punches back as it blocks Lee from turning to the northeast. That punch, plus the high’s movement to the northwest will shove Lee back to the west, directly towards Cape Cod.
Lee is moving north faster than the Bermuda High. However, it won’t be until it approaches northern New Brunswick and Québec’s Gaspé Peninsula that it finally get slingshotted to the northeast over the high. This current guidance also significantly lowers the impacts of Lee in Newfoundland, Labrador, and St. Pierre et Miquelon.
Cape Cod: How Close will the Eye Pass?
Let’s start with the good news: we still do not expect Lee to make landfall on Cape Cod. Unfortunately, the eye can still get mighty close without actually making landfall. We expect the eye of the storm to pass within 150 miles (240 km) of the Outer Cape. This track will keep winds with a northerly component: northeast shifting northwest.
With the northerly offshore winds, there will not be any problems with storm surge in southern New England. Some minor coastal flooding is possible in north-facing areas of Cape Cod Bay, as well as the South Shore (Sagamore, Plymouth, Duxbury, etc). Depending on the storm’s timing with high tide, you could see minor coastal flooding as far north as Boston.
Hurricane preparations should be completed by late Friday morning on Cape Cod. Conditions will start to deteriorate Friday afternoon. The worst of the storm should blow through between 6 AM and Noon EDT on Saturday. Conditions may exceed the threshold to close the Bourne and Sagamore Bridges, so plan accordingly.
The Canadian Maritimes: Pick Your Poison with Lee in Nova Scotia
The GFS has realigned with the Euro back on the more westerly trajectory. As a result, the odds of landfall in Nova Scotia are actually lower. In fact, both models show Lee bending around Nova Scotia and coming ashore near St. John, New Brunswick. However, it’s still very possible for the eye to hit the southwestern part of Nova Scotia, near Yarmouth.
Unfortunately, the latest guidance means that the Canadian Maritimes, and Nova Scotia in particular, will be on the “bad” side of the storm for storm surge impacts. We expect coastal flooding along the entire Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia, particularly around high tide. However, we are not expecting any catastrophic flooding. Under Lee’s expected track, Nova Scotia will behave like an island. Excess storm surge will just go around it and dump into the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Minor coastal flooding is possible on the New Brunswick side of the Bay of Fundy as well.
Look for Lee to make landfall between Bar Harbor, Maine and Yarmouth, Nova Scotia. The models, as well as the current NHC track and our forecast all have it making landfall near the US-Canada border. We expect that to happen on Sunday morning around 2 AM EDT/3 AM ADT.
Lee will Weaken Before Impacting the Canadian Maritimes
The good news is that Hurricane Lee will begin to weaken once it gets north of Cape Cod. The colder waters of the Gulf of Maine will weaken it to a strong tropical storm by the time it comes ashore. For points north – particularly the Bas Saint Laurent, La Gaspésie, and Côte Nord regions of Québec – you may not even see tropical storm force winds.
Current Watches and Warnings for Hurricane Lee
A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect for Bermuda. As of 5 PM EDT, Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the entire coast of New England. The National Hurricane Center will issue watches for the Canadian Maritimes within the next 24 hours or so.
Do Not Attempt to Travel to New England or the Canadian Maritimes This Weekend
Because Lee is such a massive storm, the entirety of New England and the Canadian Maritimes will feel impacts from it. As a result, we recommend that you do not attempt to travel to the affected areas until Lee clears out. The hurricane will likely bring down trees, block roads, and cause power outages.
Additionally, we expect flight cancellations and the suspension of train and bus service throughout New England and the Canadian Maritimes. These disruptions will also impact nearby cities such as New York, Montréal, and Québec City.
Our Verdict for Cape Cod and the Canadian Maritimes
Hurricane Lee will deliver a solid punch to both coastal and inland areas throughout New England and the Canadian Maritimes. With both the Euro and GFS still slightly favoring the western side of the NHC cone, our forecast does as well. Lee will pass about 150 miles (240 km) offshore of Cape Cod as a Category 1 hurricane. Then, it will make landfall near the US-Canada border as a strong tropical storm. After landfall, it will weaken rapidly as it approaches Québec’s Gaspé peninsula. There, the jet stream will finally grab hold of it and launch it out the northeast.
With the models now locking in on a solution for Lee, we can actually make some proper forecasts for the region. While we focused on worst-case scenarios in our Monday update, the table below now reflects what we actually expect to see at the peak of Hurricane Lee.
| Point Location | Wind Direction | Max Sustained (kt) | Max Gusts (kt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York, NY | N | 20 to 30 | 30 to 35 |
| Montauk, NY | NNE -> NW | 30 to 40 | 40 to 50 |
| Newport, RI | NE -> NW | 35 to 45 | 50 to 60 |
| Woods Hole, MA | NE -> NW | 45 to 55 | 60 to 70 |
| Chatham, MA | NE -> NW | 50 to 60 | 70 to 80 |
| Boston, MA | NNE -> NNW | 30 to 40 | 50 to 60 |
| Portland, ME | N -> NNW | 35 to 45 | 55 to 65 |
| Bar Harbor, ME | NE | 35 to 45 | 55 to 65 |
| St. John, NB | NE -> S | 40 to 50 | 55 to 65 |
| Yarmouth, NS | E -> S | 45 to 55 | 65 to 75 |
| Halifax, NS | E -> SE | 30 to 40 | 50 to 60 |
| Charlottetown, PE | SE | 20 to 30 | 35 to 45 |
| Gaspé, QC | NE | 15 to 25 | 25 to 35 |
| Port aux Basques, NL | SE -> S | 20 to 30 | 30 to 40 |
| St. Pierre et Miquelon, FR | S | 15 to 25 | 25 to 35 |
Putting Lee in Perspective: How it Compares to Recent Storms
The most notable recent storm to compare Lee to is the October, 2021 nor’easter, which was also briefly Tropical Storm Wanda. That storm hit Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts as the equivalent of a weak Category 2 hurricane, downing trees and knocking out power for nearly a week. Wind gusts at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution hit 98 miles per hour (158 km/h) before their weather station went offline. Based on nearby observations, peak gusts likely reached 110 to 115 mph (177 to 185 km/h) in Woods Hole that day.
The other storm we’ve received numerous requests for comparison is Hurricane Bob. Bob made landfall in Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane in August 1991, with sustained winds of 105 mph (169 km/h). The big difference with Bob was that winds in southeastern Massachusetts were from the south (onshore), which caused the catastrophic flooding on Cape Cod.
Thankfully, Hurricane Lee won’t be anywhere close to the power and intensity of either of those storms. As it toes the line between a tropical storm and a Category 1 hurricane, it’s more likely than not that you won’t even see wind gusts on land reach Category 2 strength in Lee.
As always, if you have any questions or concerns, please leave them in the comments section below and we’ll respond to them as soon as possible.
Additional Resources
- NOAA National Hurricane Center
- Canadian Hurricane Centre (En Français: Centre Canadien de Prévision des Ouragans)
- Pivotal Weather: The Models
